Brazil Economic Indicators – June 2011

Although the economy recorded 4.2% growth in Q1 2011, economists lowered expectations for Brazil’s GDP growth in 2011 to 4.0%. Exports grew by  31.1% while imports increased by 38.1% year-on-year. The Consumer Confidence Index continued a downward trend, dropping to 115.4 in May, reflecting growing caution in the otherwise positive environment. Retail sales growth slowed to 3.9% YoY in March while outstanding consumer loans decreased marginally to 17.7% in April. The PMI reversed its three-month downward trend and registered a slight uptick to 50.8 in May. However, industrial capacity utilization declined to 82% in April and industrial production contracted by 1.3% on year-on-year basis. Inflation remained a major concern as the Consumer Price Index edged up to 6.55% in May, above the 6.5% upper limit of the inflation target. Unemployment decreased to 6.4% in April, reversing a three-month upward trend. Other highlights include:

• The BM&F Bovespa index lost 0.6% in the last 30 days.
• Net foreign direct investment recorded an inflow of 2.9 billion USD in April.
• The central bank raised the SELIC overnight rate by 25 basis points in the last 30 days.